ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 3.5 percent in 2013
ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 3.5% in 2013, reaching US$503bn bythe end of the year. This is the same as the growth rate we forecast back in June, marking the firsttime that we have not downgraded our 2013 forecast since June 2012. We see this as a promisingsign of stability in the global ad market.
We expect stronger growth over the next two years – of 5.1% in 2014 and 5.9% in 2015 – mainlybecause Europe, which is currently acting as a brake on global ad growth, will become healthierover the next couple of years. The Eurozone came out of its 18-month recession in Q2 2013, andits economic recovery is expected to gather pace gradually over the next couple of years. TheEurozone ad market should follow the same track. Eurozone adspend shrank 5.2% in 2012; weforecast a smaller 4.3% decline in 2013, followed by marginal 0.7% growth in 2014 and 1.9%growth in 2015.
Despite these prospects for recovery, a steeper-than-expected decline in Eurozone adspend in thefirst half has weighed down our forecast for adspend growth in Mature Markets* this year, whichwe have reduced to 1.4% from 1.7% in June.
There has been no sign of a concerted advertising slowdown in Rising Markets*, despite concernsover their short-term economic prospects. Economic growth has slowed in the BRICs (Brazil,Russia, India and China), among other Rising Markets, as demand for their exports has weakenedand international investors have begun to turn their attention to Mature Markets. However, RisingMarkets still have young populations with improving education, infrastructure, productivity andadoption of technology. Their contribution to the world economy will continue to grow fordecades to come. Advertisers have not been put off by the recent problems and are investing forthe long term. We have actually increased our forecasts for adspend growth in Rising Markets thisyear to 7.6%, up from the 7.0% we forecast in June.
After the recent violence, we have reduced our forecasts for Egypt this year from 3.9% growth to6.3% decline. This disruption has not spread to nearby ad markets, and we still forecast 4.8%growth for the Middle East and North Africa this year, down from our June forecast of 5.5%. Thewider geopolitical problems sparked by the Syrian conflict have to date had no material effect onglobal adspend.
As we have been doing since the December 2012 edition of our forecasts, we have looked in moredetail at the growth rates of different region blocs, because the regions we usually look at (e.g.Western Europe, Central & Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific) do not capture the nuances of howdifferent parts of the world are currently developing. These blocs have been defined by thesimilarity of the performance of their ad markets as well as their geographical proximity. See theend of the Executive Summary for a complete list of countries by bloc... read more